Undoubtedly, the 2024 elections have been a shock and surprise, both in seats and stocks. This was not just limited to Uttar Pradesh. Kerala, considered a playing field between the United Democratic Front and Left Democratic Front, has now seen a seat won by the Bharatiya Janata Party. For the first time, the capitalism-oriented saffron party has been able to infiltrate the communist mainland. For a long time, Kerala has been a playing field between the Congress-led UDF and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) -led LDF. This picture of Kerala political landscape changed and transformed following the 2014 elections. A noticeable transformation was occurred with the ascent of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance on a national level. In the 2019 elections, the BJP secured the first place in only one of Kerala's 140 assembly segments and second place in the other seven segments. However, by 2024, this situation had significantly evolved, with the BJP clinching the top position in eleven assembly segments and securing the runner-up position in other nine segments. This shift effectively transformed the state's political dynamics from a bipolar contest to a tripolar one in 30 different assembly segments. Furthermore, there has been a significant reduction in the number of constituencies where the BJP garnered less than 10% of the vote in 2014, dropping from eleven to just one constituency presently. This trend underscored BJP's growing influence and acceptance among Kerala voters over the past ten years. This highlights the development of Kerala’s political landscape with an increase in BJP’s electoral presence and how it has impacted Kerala’s bipolar political framework. Firstly, there was discontent among the CPI(M) workers due to the one-man style of functioning of CM Pinarayi Vijayan. They wanted to send a ‘course correction’ message to the state government but, at the same time, did not want to help Congress either. Therefore, the BJP was a form of NOTA option for them with the belief that they would not win in any case. The minority appeasement and hubris of the party leaders have been major factors in workers staying away from the booths and even voting for BJP candidates in many places. Kerala fosters a large minority population, which makes up 46% of the state. Therefore, the BJP changed their political approach in Kerala.“BJP tried to set aside the religious hatred and chauvinism and tried reaching out to the minorities, OBCs and Dalits in the state.” Dr G Gopakumar, a leading political scientist and psephologist, was quoted by Deccan Herald as saying. The LDF used the Citizenship Amendment Act against the NDA to attract Muslim voters. This resulted in the sidelining of the Christian community. Political commentator N M Pearson told the TNIE that the CPI(M) has been losing party workers slowly due to a resurgence of identity politics and disappointment with the leadership. However, the BJP’s first Lok Sabha win in Thrissur can be credited more to the candidate than the party. Other than Former Actor turned politician Suresh Gopi’s popular appeal, his recent donation of a gold crown to the Lourdes Metropolitan Cathedral attracted the dissatisfied Christian community. This added a 21% vote share in Thrissur, making the total vote share a massive 37.8% and garnering him a win. Besides Thrissur, BJP candidates performed reasonably well in Thiruvananthapuram with 35.52% votes, Attingal with 31.64%, and Alappuzha with 28.3%. Heraclitus famously said, “Change is the only constant.” Indian politics, too, revolves around a constant factor of change. Whether the 60 years of Congress rule or the decade-long BJP dominance, change in preference, policies, and power has always existed. In Indian politics, this change can be either positive or negative. For the BJP, it was a negative one in Uttar Pradesh but a positive one in Kerala. After a decade, we can say that the BJP has a voice in Kerala, though not a major one. This change is what keeps the spirit of democracy alive. Reasons behind BJP’s unexpected surge:
BJP as NOTA
Minorities as Voter Bank
Christian Community
20 Jun 2024
Molshree Kaushik
