Lewis Hamilton going to Ferrari? That wasn’t on my 2024 F1 Bingo list, and I assume it wasn’t on yours either. This transfer marks the start of a bizarre season, with 13 drivers going out of contract by the end of the year. Hamilton had a release clause in his contract with Mercedes, and he has opted to move to Ferrari in 2025. After 11 seasons, six World Drivers’ Championships, and eight World Constructors’ Championships with Mercedes, Hamilton has built a formidable legacy there. What does this mean for Hamilton’s future? How will it work with him and Leclerc at Ferrari? Who will replace Hamilton at Mercedes, and where will Sainz end up at the end of the season? These are the main questions that I will attempt to answer in this piece. Lewis Hamilton had been unstoppable since 2016, winning four World Drivers’ Championships consecutively. Winning in 2020, he tied with Michael Schumacher at seven world titles, and he was expecting to break that record in 2021 by winning his eighth world title. We all know what ensued that season, with an exciting title fight mired in controversy. Max Verstappen beat Lewis Hamilton, taking his first World Drivers’ Championship in unusual circumstances. With new regulations coming in 2022, Mercedes wasn’t able to adapt well and did not deliver a car capable of winning championships two years in a row. This put an end to Hamilton’s bid for that record-breaking 8th title. Hamilton hasn’t won a single race in the past two seasons. The move to Ferrari could be considered another attempt at trying to go for that eighth title. Ferrari was a championship contender in 2022, but the team made a few too many mistakes. It was also the only non-Red Bull team to win a race in the most dominant season in F1 history. Hamilton probably hopes Ferrari can give him a car that might beat Red Bull. He wants a chance to win that elusive eighth title. One thing that a lot of people are excited to see is how driver dynamics will work in the team with two primary drivers there. Ferrari faced a basic problem with Sainz. He wouldn’t follow team orders if he didn't approve of them. This happened, for example, at Silverstone 2022, and it ended up benefitting him. Sainz is also not a driver who would want to play a secondary role in the team as he has proved many times that he is good enough to be a primary driver. Ferrari has clearly shown a bias towards Leclerc. They consider him to be their future superstar. They want to build the team around him as much as possible. However, that didn't seem possible with Sainz there. However, with Hamilton going there, that will prove to be an even bigger challenge. Leclerc has established himself as a driver who can challenge for a championship when he has the car. That will be a big issue because if Ferrari were to get into a title fight, Hamilton would want to win his 8th world title. Leclerc would want to be the driver leading the charge for Ferrari. Hamilton has faced this scenario before when competing with Nico Rosberg for a title. However, it was very different because Mercedes had little competition for the title. That will not be the case this time around. Red Bull is way ahead of the competition and McLaren is making a resurgence. Mercedes has been on par with Ferrari in terms of the constructors’ standings. There will be plenty of competition for the title fight if it were to happen. It will be interesting to see how Ferrari handles the driver dynamics, and how Leclerc and Hamilton match up against each other. This move has done two major things for the drivers’ market. It has freed up a very sought-after seat in one of the top teams and left Carlos Sainz Jr. without a seat. This begs the question – who will replace Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes? Now some people might think, “What if Sainz goes to Mercedes?” That doesn’t sound too bad, Mercedes is a top team and won’t be a downgrade from Ferrari. Well, that won’t work well for Sainz as he would have to go from being on par with Leclerc to being second to George Russell. Another option people have thought of is bringing back Valtteri Bottas. This would provide a safe pair of hands to ensure they have a second driver who can perform. While it seems like a good option, the chances of that happening are low. I don’t think Mercedes would bring back Bottas with Russell, as they have had a rather rocky relationship. What about Kimi Antonelli? If he were to win F2, could he join Russell in Mercedes? I doubt it. F2 will be very competitive with drivers like Oliver Bearman and Zak O’Sullivan. It would be very promising if Kimi wins the championship. However, I think Mercedes would give him a couple of years in Williams before bringing him to the main team. Speaking of Williams, Alex Albon can be a good candidate too. He gets along well with Russell; he is a great driver and would love to get back to a top team. The only issue could be that Albon is the primary driver at Williams. He would be given the role of secondary driver to George Russell at least for his first season there. Nevertheless, in my opinion, Albon would be the best option for Mercedes. However, there is another driver who could get that seat, and that would be Mick Schumacher. He has experience in Formula 1 while at Haas. It wasn’t the best stint, but it still counts for something. He was their reserve driver last season. He's continuing that role this year too. He's also joining the Alpine team in the World Endurance Championship Hypercar series. Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff had said last year that Mick Schumacher has shown a lot of promise in the simulator. Finally, where might Carlos Sainz end up in 2025? McLaren can be an option because he has performed very well during his time there and McLaren did value him a lot in their team. However, that isn’t likely because McLaren has a very solid lineup right now, which they will not want to change. Lando Norris just signed a contract extension with them. Oscar Piastri exceeded expectations in his rookie season and will only continue to improve. Mercedes is also unlikely, as was mentioned before. I think there are two good options that Sainz can go for if things work out perfectly for him. First, let’s see the obvious one; Stake F1 Team. Stake (previously Sauber) will become Audi in 2026 when they come into the sport. There have been rumors that Audi has been interested in Carlos to lead their campaign in Formula 1. It would make sense for him to go to Stake and establish himself there as the lead driver in 2025 and then go forward with Project Audi in 2026. The second option that would require a lot of luck for Sainz is Red Bull. Sergio Perez’s (Checo) contract is up at the end of the year so that is a seat that a lot of drivers will be gunning for. Checo would want to get an extension. Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda are also contenders for the seat. It depends on their performance in the Visa Cashapp RB F1 team (VCARB), and on how Checo performs. Sainz can be a candidate. He has been a part of the Red Bull program. His rookie season in F1 was as a Red Bull junior driver in Toro Rosso, alongside Max Verstappen. He was good in his rookie season but he took a little more time to find his footing in F1 compared to Verstappen. In his second season there, he was way better than his teammate, Danill Kvyat, who was a more experienced driver. So, he has been associated with Red Bull and is also one of the very few drivers who left Red Bull on their terms. Another example of that is Daniel Ricciardo. He came back to the Red Bull family last year as a reserve driver. Then, he became a full-time driver for Alpha Tauri (now VCARB). He has also been Max’s teammate before and they had a good dynamic in Toro Rosso back in 2015. It could entirely be possible that if he performs well enough, Red Bull might bring him back. In conclusion, Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari after 11 years at Mercedes has stirred up the world of Formula 1. It's "Silly Season". His move leaves a seat open at Mercedes and might leave Carlos Sainz without a contract at the end of the year. Adding to the intrigue is the dynamic between Hamilton and Ferrari's rising star, Charles Leclerc. Both drivers have championship dreams and strong personalities. Their partnership promises a compelling storyline. It evokes the anticipation of eagerly-awaited chapters in a thrilling saga. It will undoubtedly be an enthralling season to follow, not only on the track, but also off track. Drama will unfold in the drivers’ market.How Will Driver Dynamics Work?
The Vacancy Conundrum
What About Sainz?
05 Feb 2024
Vyom Ramani
