The vulnerability to food security has been spiked by unseasonable winter rains and summer heatwaves. On 13 May 2022, India announced a ban on wheat exports– sending shockwaves in the global market. Almost four months later, in September, India also banned export of broken rice, and imposed a 20% export duty on non-Basmati rice, with an exception for parboiled rice. The decisions came as a blow to the international community which had been relying on the second largest wheat exporter of the world, in the wake of the war in Ukraine. But what was the reason behind this? Vulnerability to food security was spiked by unseasonable winter rains and summer heatwaves, the markers of climate change. The Scorching Heat Wave India witnessed its worst heat waves in 122 years during the months of April and May that resulted in damaged, shriveled wheat grains. Smaller grains weigh lesser, thereby bringing down the total output to 111.32 million tonnes, which is 3.8 million tonnes less than that of the previous year. According to the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), the increase in temperature also resulted in low yield of several fruit and vegetable crops. “Heat waves also led to reduction of cucumber and bitter gourd yield by 30 to 50%, and more than 40% in tomato compared to normal situation in Kathua and Bandipora districts of Jammu and Kashmir”, ICAR stated. The yield of summer fruit, mango, was also affected by extreme weather conditions. “The Kesar and Alphonso varieties of mango got impacted by Tauktae cyclone, very low temperature, isolated unseasonal rainfall and fog in December-January and high temperature in the month of March resulting in lower yields”, the ICAR report, released in 2022 explained. Unpredictable Monsoon Rainfall After waves of scorching heat, farmers were waiting eagerly for the monsoon rainfall. However, the monsoon arrived too late, affecting the paddy crop this Kharif season. According to the first estimate released by the Union ministry of ag- riculture, a decline of around 6% in rice production is projected as compared to last year. It is to be noted that these estimates were calculated before heavy rains struck North India in the last week of September. The sudden heavy rainfall has worsened the situation. While the government has started the process of procurement of the rice crop, farmers are waiting for their crop to dry. Food Production at Stake According to a report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2022, the yield for crops like rice, wheat and pulses in the country is projected to further decline by 2.3% by the year 2030. The report states that India is emerging as the most vulnerable nation in terms of crop production in Asia. “Despite the observed increase in total food production in terms of crops and food yields from 1990 to 2014 in Asia (FAO, 2015), there is high confidence that overall, at the regional level, the projected total negative impacts will far outweigh the expected benefits, with India emerging as the most vulnerable nation in terms of crop productiom." Price Spike The IPCC report has predicted price spikes for crops in all South Asian regions, emphasizing that India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are expected to see “significantly higher rice and wheat prices than under the baseline scenario”. “This will likely severely affect the overall economic growth of these countries since they are mainly agriculture-driven economies”, the report stated.
10 Oct 2022
Uzma Afreen
