The streets of Gaza are quieter than they have been in months. Smoke no longer thickens the sky, and the distant thud of airstrikes has faded. But behind the uneasy silence, tensions still pulse beneath the surface, and in the corridors of power from Tel Aviv to Tehran, decisions are being made that could reignite the conflict at any moment. After more than a year of bloodshed, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was brokered in January 2025, promising an exchange of hostages and prisoners. The world exhaled, cautiously hopeful. But like so many before it, this truce has been defined by mistrust, accusations of violations, and the ever-present spectre of a wider war—one that could extend far beyond Gaza. As Hamas now signals its willingness to comply with the agreement it once resisted, the question remains: Is this a genuine step toward de-escalation, or just a temporary lull before an even more significant storm? The Roots of an Endless Conflict Israel and Iran have never fought a direct war, yet for decades, they have been locked in a shadow conflict—one waged through proxy forces, cyber warfare, and covert operations. Iran backs Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and militias in Syria and Iraq. Israel, in turn, has carried out countless strikes on Iranian-linked targets across the region. But the most significant flashpoint remains Iran's nuclear program. While Tehran insists its ambitions are peaceful, Israel views a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat. Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once called it a "red line that cannot be crossed." In recent months, the rhetoric has escalated once again, with US intelligence reports suggesting that Israel is actively considering strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran, for its part, has warned that any such attack would trigger an "all-out war" across the Middle East. "The Zionist regime must understand," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian declared in January, "that any aggression will be met with a response unlike any seen before." The stakes could not be higher. Yet, amidst these tensions, an uneasy, fragile truce still exists. A Ceasefire Hanging by a Thread But within days, both sides accused each other of violations. Hamas claimed that Israel had failed to uphold its end of the deal, pointing to continued military activity in some regions of Gaza. Israel, in turn, accused Hamas of deliberately delaying the release of hostages in an attempt to extract further concessions. A senior Israeli official, speaking anonymously, stated: For weeks, the deadlock remained. But now, in a surprising turn, Hamas has indicated that it will fully comply with the agreement, raising questions about what changed behind the scenes. Analysts believe financial and diplomatic pressures have forced Hamas' hand. Iran, a key backer of Hamas, has faced economic strain due to sanctions, which have limited the funding available for militant groups. Additionally, Hamas' rival, the Palestinian Authority (PA), has gained diplomatic traction, leading to fears that prolonged conflict could weaken Hamas' political legitimacy. Dr. Lina Khatib, an expert on Middle Eastern conflicts, explains: But how long can this fragile peace hold? The Shadow of a Bigger War The prospect of an Israeli strike on Iran is not new. In 1981, Israel destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactor at Osirak. In 2007, it performed a similar operation against a suspected reactor in Syria. But Iran is different. Its nuclear sites are fortified, dispersed, and heavily defended. A successful Israeli attack would require not just airstrikes but likely covert sabotage and cyber operations. More importantly, unlike Iraq or Syria, Iran has the means to retaliate—through Hezbollah, through missile strikes, or even through direct military action. The Biden administration has reportedly urged restraint, fearing that an Israeli-Iranian war could spiral out of control. A US defence official, speaking to The Washington Post, noted: But Israel has a history of acting alone when it feels its security is at stake. Yoav Gallant, Israel's Defense Minister, made it clear in a recent statement: For Iran, the message is equally clear. Khamenei himself has warned that any attack will result in 'destruction beyond imagination.' With both sides locked in a cycle of threats and counter-threats, the ceasefire in Gaza—while significant—feels like only one piece of a much larger and more dangerous puzzle. A Fragile Peace, A Ticking Clock Hamas' sudden compliance raises more questions than answers. Is this a sign that diplomacy is working or a tactical move to regroup and rearm? And with Israel and Iran now standing at the brink of a potential confrontation, how long before the next flashpoint? The world may share his unease. Because as history has shown, in this conflict, truces are not endings. They are only pauses. Source Getty Images Photographer - Hossein Beris
To understand why the ceasefire remains fragile, one must go back—not just to October 2023, when the latest round of violence erupted, but to the deeper, more entrenched hostilities between Israel and Iran.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas brokered in early 2025, was supposed to mark the first step toward de-escalation. Under the agreement, Hamas would release Israeli hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners.
"Hamas is playing a dangerous game. They think they can manipulate the terms of this deal, but we have made it clear—if they do not comply, we will return to full-scale military operations."
"Hamas is not just a militant group—it is also a governing entity in Gaza. Prolonged war risks alienating its people and diminishing its standing internationally. This move suggests that Hamas is recalibrating its strategy, at least for now."
While all eyes are on Gaza, the real danger may lie elsewhere. Israeli intelligence has assessed that Iran is accelerating its nuclear program. In response, Tel Aviv is weighing the possibility of preemptive strikes on Iranian facilities—particularly the Fordow and Natanz enrichment sites.
"Any Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would trigger a response that could engulf the entire region. We have strongly advised against such a course of action."
"Iran's nuclear program is not just a red line for Israel, but a global threat. If the world does not act, we will."
For now, the ceasefire holds. Hostages are being exchanged. Airstrikes have paused. The streets of Gaza, though scarred, are no longer bombed-out warzones. However, the real test is not whether the guns will stay silent today but whether the underlying forces driving this conflict can ever be contained.
"There is no real peace here," says a Palestinian shopkeeper in Gaza City, watching as life resumes cautiously. "There is just waiting. Waiting for the next war."
Caption- Iran showcases an S-200 missile system during 'Holy Defense Week' in Tehran.
25 Jan 2025
Aashriti Jha
