The recent Lok Sabha Elections in 2024 showed a pivotal shift in Uttar Pradesh's political landscape, as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faced an unprecedented setback, with its tally halved compared to previous elections. From winning 71 seats in the state in 2014 and 62 in 2019, the BJP could only manage 33 seats this time around. The BJP bastion was breached, and it can possibly be attributed to various factors such as the low voter turnout, the Samajwadi Party-Congress promises catering to the Dalits and OBCs, the SP’s choice of candidates, economic issues like fuel prices and job scarcity, and the farm laws causing distress amongst the rural community. Since 2014, UP has been an undeniable stronghold for the BJP, delivering notable victories in successive polls. However, the 2024 elections departed from this trend, beckoning a revival for opposition parties like SP and Congress. Congress' resurgence with six seats and SP scoring a victory with 37 seats reinforced a significant shift in the state's political dynamics. The party leadership called a high-level two-day meeting in Delhi to review the party’s debacle in the state in the polls. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, state BJP Secretary Dharampal Singh, state unit president Bhupendra Singh Chaudhary, deputy CMs Keshav Prasad Maurya and Brajesh Pathak as well as other senior leaders attended the review meeting. The Ram Mandir emerged as one of the primary narratives for the BJP's electoral strategy, with the grand inauguration of the temple in Ayodhya intended to garner support. However, in the Faizabad constituency, which includes Ayodhya where the Ram Mandir came up, the Samajwadi Party's Awadhesh Prasad defeated BJP's Lallu Singh by over 54,500 votes. This unprecedented outcome came just months after the consecration ceremony of the new idol of Ram Lalla in Ayodhya. Two factors need to be considered here. Firstly, the saffron party needed to be more robust in addressing economic issues, particularly in rural areas, tackling agricultural distress and unemployment. Second, there was a purported dissonance in addressing the resentment among locals for not getting compensation for their land taken over in Ayodhya. The BJP also suffered defeats in other high-profile constituencies. In Amethi, outgoing Union minister Smriti Irani lost by more than 1.67 lakh votes, while in Sultanpur Maneka Gandhi lost by over 43,000 votes. It has been argued that the BJP's attempt to gain voters needed better caste-based considerations, with the party’s setback possibly stemming from the insufficient support among OBCs and Dalits, coupled with Akhilesh Yadav's tactic of a solid caste equation. The year-long farmers' protests against the three controversial farm laws may have also played a role in eroding votes for the party from the rural community in UP. Despite the eventual repeal of these laws, the distrust may have lingered. The electoral decline may have also been due to the failure to counter the Opposition's narrative regarding the alleged threat to Constitutional rights, particularly reservation benefits for OBCs and SC/STs. Reports have also pointed towards shortcomings in candidate selection, resulting in unfavourable outcomes for the party. Post-poll analysis has pointed towards the success of Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA (Pichhda, Dalit and Alpsankhyak) narrative in helping SP win a record number of seats. The Opposition's promises catering to the Dalits, OBCs, SCs, and STs, entailing direct cash transfers and promising allowances to unemployed youth may have played a pivotal role in the changing political fortunes. SP leader Akhilesh Yadav stated, “We must ensure that every community gets its fair share of opportunities. Our reservation policy will reflect this commitment.” The SP’s manifesto pledged to provide free education up to college level and free healthcare services, aiming to reduce the financial burden on families. This may have attracted substantial backing from Dalits and OBCs, who often face financial barriers to education and healthcare. While focusing on broader economic schemes, the BJP failed to scrutinise policies for marginalised communities. Another critical factor may have been the low voter turnout, which dropped to 55%, a decline from the previous elections. For UP, this may have been caused by inefficiencies in voter management, like long queues and malfunctioning voting machines. In conclusion, the BJP's significant decline in numbers in the Uttar Pradesh elections may be attributed to widespread economic distress, shortcomings in candidate selection, and improved performance of the Opposition that was cognisant of the caste arithmetic and highlighted bread and butter issues to connect with the electorate. As the BJP undertakes a review in the aftermath of its setback, the 2024 elections will mould its future strategies in Uttar Pradesh.
Source: IG @socialist_akhileshyadavThe Setback in Ayodhya
Caste-Based Considerations
The Opposition Play
Source- IG @socialist_akhileshyadav
13 Jun 2024
Vaibhavee Soni
